230.548 People
Van Vuuren, Detlef Peter
in Cooperation with on an Cooperation-Score of 37%
Topics
- assessment
- vehicle occupant
- road
- passenger
- climate
- contaminant
- modeling
- carbon
- combustion
- biomass
- internal combustion engine
- hydrogen
- international transportation
- raw material
- warehousing
- temperature
- humanities
- accounting
- market
- passenger transportation
- liquid
- determinant
- petroleum
- economics
- energy consumption
- shipping
- market share
- biomass fuel
- freight service
- 21st century
- liquid fuel
- highway travel
- socioeconomic factor
- real property
- carbon capture and storage
- petroleum fuel
- connectivity
- monitoring
- freight transportation
- aviation
- driving
- driver
- railroad track
- laceration
- environmental science
- shipment
- freight traffic
- chemical element
- law
- air travel
- COVID-19
- load factor
- fossil fuel
- oversize load
- manufactured product
- production
- gas
- indicating instrument
- rural area
- electric power supply
- electric vehicle
- automobile
- accumulator
- forecasting
- electrification
- profit
- sensitivity
- incentive
- costs
- greenhouse gas
- uncertainty
- passenger car
- decision making
- consumer
- fuel
- decomposition
- time window
- modal shift
- speech
- land use
- price
- sustainable development
- climate change
- economic development
- base line
- socioeconomic development
- gasoline
- electric automobile
- Research Context United States of America
- electric power generation
- transport demand
- fuel consumption
- income
- alternate fuel
- natural gas
- taxation
- ton kilometer
- carbon tax
- passenger kilometer
- traffic behavior
- travel
- show 71 more
Publications
- 2022The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment
- 2021Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°Ccitations
- 2018Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario
- 2018Transport electrification: the effect of recent battery cost reduction on future emission scenarioscitations
- 2018Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futurescitations
- 2017Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment modelscitations
- 2017The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overviewcitations
- 2016Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment modelscitations
- 2015Regional differences in mitigation strategies: an example for passenger transportcitations
- 2013Climate impact of transportation A model comparisoncitations
- 2013Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissionscitations
- 2012An energy vision: The transformation towards sustainability-interconnected challenges and solutionscitations
Places of action
article
Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures
Abstract
The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling future pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to future technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later-adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore is only an attractive choice for early adopters. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials.
Topics
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