230.548 People
Van Vuuren, Detlef Peter
in Cooperation with on an Cooperation-Score of 37%
Topics
- assessment
- vehicle occupant
- road
- passenger
- climate
- contaminant
- modeling
- carbon
- combustion
- biomass
- internal combustion engine
- hydrogen
- international transportation
- raw material
- warehousing
- temperature
- humanities
- accounting
- market
- passenger transportation
- liquid
- determinant
- petroleum
- economics
- energy consumption
- shipping
- market share
- biomass fuel
- freight service
- 21st century
- liquid fuel
- highway travel
- socioeconomic factor
- real property
- carbon capture and storage
- petroleum fuel
- connectivity
- monitoring
- freight transportation
- aviation
- driving
- driver
- railroad track
- laceration
- environmental science
- shipment
- freight traffic
- chemical element
- law
- air travel
- COVID-19
- load factor
- fossil fuel
- oversize load
- manufactured product
- production
- gas
- indicating instrument
- rural area
- electric power supply
- electric vehicle
- automobile
- accumulator
- forecasting
- electrification
- profit
- sensitivity
- incentive
- costs
- greenhouse gas
- uncertainty
- passenger car
- decision making
- consumer
- fuel
- decomposition
- time window
- modal shift
- speech
- land use
- price
- sustainable development
- climate change
- economic development
- base line
- socioeconomic development
- gasoline
- electric automobile
- Research Context United States of America
- electric power generation
- transport demand
- fuel consumption
- income
- alternate fuel
- natural gas
- taxation
- ton kilometer
- carbon tax
- passenger kilometer
- traffic behavior
- travel
- show 71 more
Publications
- 2022The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment
- 2021Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°Ccitations
- 2018Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario
- 2018Transport electrification: the effect of recent battery cost reduction on future emission scenarioscitations
- 2018Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futurescitations
- 2017Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment modelscitations
- 2017The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overviewcitations
- 2016Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment modelscitations
- 2015Regional differences in mitigation strategies: an example for passenger transportcitations
- 2013Climate impact of transportation A model comparisoncitations
- 2013Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissionscitations
- 2012An energy vision: The transformation towards sustainability-interconnected challenges and solutionscitations
Places of action
article
Climate impact of transportation A model comparison
Abstract
Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.
Topics
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