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Kouwenhoven, Marco

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Börjesson, Maria - 30 publications, 1 shared
de Jong, Gerard C. - 23 publications, 5 shared
Daly, Andrew - 18 publications, 1 shared
Van Cranenburgh, Sander - 2 publications, 1 shared
Warffemius, Pim - 1 publications, 1 shared
Warffemius, P. M. J. - 4 publications, 3 shared
Berg, Vincent A. C. Van Den - 35 publications, 2 shared
Koster, Paul - 15 publications, 1 shared
Bates, J. - 3 publications, 3 shared
Verhoef, Erik Teodoor - 294 publications, 4 shared
Jong, G. De - 3 publications, 1 shared
Koster, Paul R. - 12 publications, 2 shared
Tavasszy, Lorant - 43 publications, 1 shared
Pauget, Nicolas - 1 publications, 1 shared
Kroes, E. P. - 12 publications, 2 shared
Debrincat, Laurence - 1 publications, 1 shared
Tseng, Yin-Yen - 15 publications, 1 shared
Tuinenga, Jan Gerrit - 1 publications, 1 shared
Bucci, Pietro - 1 publications, 1 shared
Geurs, Karst T - 13 publications, 1 shared
Rohr, Charlene - 4 publications, 1 shared
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Fox, J. - 2 publications, 1 shared
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report

Forecasting travel time reliability in road transport: A new model for the Netherlands

  • Kouwenhoven, Marco
  • Warffemius, Pim
Abstract

In this paper we describe how we included travel time variability in the national Dutch transport forecasting model and what the policy impacts of this new forecasting tool are. Until now, travel time reliability improvements for road projects were included in Dutch cost-benefit analysis (CBA) by multiplying the travel time benefits from reduced congestion by a factor 1.25. This proportionality is based on the linkage between congestion reduction and reliability improvements. However, this treatment of reliability is not useful to evaluate policies that especially affect travel time variability. From the start, this method was provisional and meant to be replaced by a better method capturing travel time variability. For this, we derived an empirical relation between the standard deviation of travel time, mean delay of travel time and length of route. This has been implemented in the national Dutch model as a post processing module. The new travel time reliability forecasting model will be incorporated in the Dutch guidelines for CBA.

Topics
  • reliability
  • forecasting model
  • road
  • highway traffic
  • highway transportation
  • travel
  • travel time
  • economics
  • medical treatment
  • standard deviation
  • cost benefit analysis